We Think IRC (HKG:1029) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think IRC (HKG:1029) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, ‘The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about… and every practical investor I know worries about. It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that IRC Limited (HKG:1029) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well – and to its own advantage. When we think about a company’s use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for IRC

What Is IRC’s Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that IRC had US$231.8m in debt in June 2019; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$8.29m in cash, and so its net debt is US$223.5m.

SEHK:1029 Historical Debt, November 24th 2019

How Strong Is IRC’s Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that IRC had liabilities of US$109.0m due within a year, and liabilities of US$235.0m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$8.29m in cash and US$14.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$321.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$103.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we’d watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt After all, IRC would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

IRC shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (8.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.12 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. However, the silver lining was that IRC achieved a positive EBIT of US$2.1m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year’s loss. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine IRC’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it’s worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, IRC actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

Our View

To be frank both IRC’s interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We’re quite clear that we consider IRC to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we’re pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. In light of our reservations about the company’s balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.

At the end of the day, it’s often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It’s free.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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